Comparing BitCoin value with ξ-Value

How many hours of simple labor does 1BTC pay for? I have no clue. Being hyperdeflationary, it could buy 1,000 hours or only 10 minutes–BitCoin is at the mercy of the market’s demand for its value. It’s not backed by any commodity that any “human being” can understand.  Since BitCoins are only generated via massive computations, they are indeed quite scarce. The only people “winning them”—and they are indeed gambling with mathematics as they churn SHA256 hashes endlessly—are those willing to dedicate computers and energy to computing them. If you asked someone 6-months ago, how much would a BitCoin buy, you would perhaps hear: not very much. Six months from now in the future, you cannot say if 1BTC is more or less valuable than it was today–because it is not backed by any form of commodity, except perhaps luck and electricity.

How many hours of simple labor does ξ1 pay for? A year ago it was worth an hour, and ten years from now it will still be worth an hour.  For this, I know with a certainty, that it is worth one-hour and that value will never change for the life of the universe. I will have no worries that I’ll need to subdivide ξ1 into ridiculous units as ξ0.0000001, equivalent to 0.36 milliseconds, because there “isn’t enough money” to go around. I know that as more people join the economy, everyone fairly receives a larger amount of credit to facilitate trade. I know that as more and more people earn and save ξ, there will be more credit given to the spenders.  I know that when everyone has “enough” to live, that there isn’t any more need to create new money.  Using ξ is a fundamental human right in my mind. If you squander it, you’ll be given second chances for as long there are people who save.

ξ scarcity comes from the limitation of the “web of trust”—only unique people get access to ξ-credit. You can look at census data and see that if you have a local town with 5,000 people, you cannot have more than 5,000 credit-eligible identities in its economy.   Natural disasters (the death or migration of many people) or massive frauds detected in the web of trust will be the two major causes of a credit-retraction in ξ.

Rube Goldberg

BitCoin: a rube-goldberg machine for buying electricity

Update: It’s been over a year since I wrote this critique of BitCoin.  Since then, there have been more than a few alternative crypto-currencies created in the style of BitCoin’s Merkle-tree implementation, but LiteCoin is the first to choose a “proof-of-work” more stringent against farms of GPUs which have made BitCoin progressively harder to mint for “ordinary” users. Give it a look. But know that it’s still an electricity→money system. 🙂 (3-12-2012)

With the EFF’s announcement that they would being accepting BitCoin donations, the alternative money community began to take a larger interest. I certainly did, and found that there are good and bad things about this form of money.  In the end, BitCoins create a perverse incentive to consume energy to “create money.” Here is why.

What is a bitcoin and how do you create one? — A BitCoin is created whenever a user’s computer churns though a SHA-256 hash repeatedly from a hash until it results in a number less than a given number. Statistically, hash functions are supposed to have very unpredictable content–that is what makes them secure. Whenever a BitCoin client churns through a hash starting from a given number issued to the network, it burns CPU time (and thus energy).  The probability of getting a hash to be “less than” a given 256-bit number is quite low. Successfully determining how many SHA-256 rounds it takes for a particular nonce to hash to a number lower than some value is called the “proof of work.” If while your computer receives a new “block” from the network (meaning another computer successfully won some BitCoins), your computer must start over with a new nonce.

How much energy does it require to mine the average BitCoin? — With my “older computer,” the hash rate averages around 2000 khps on a microprocessor going full-bore consuming about 65W.  The current difficulty shows that a new BitCoin can be mined by a computer at this speed on average every 113 days. So, 113 days × 24 hours = 2712 hours. 2712 hours × 65W = 176280 Wh or 176.28 KWh. The average cost of a KWh in the United States is 10.45 cents. So we’re looking at spending $18.42 to create 50 BTC (at the moment).  So the electrical cost is about $0.36/BTC.  BitCoins are trading now already at values below this, so I can only assume that they’re being sold at a loss or others may be externalizing the costs of electricity and not taking this into account.  If you were to pay your electric bill in BTC, you would have a positive feedback loop (always a bad thing) that consumes more energy to earn money to pay back the power company. It doesn’t matter how efficient your processors are—you’re spending more money to make money.

Now I understand the motive to why BitCoin is like this: it is to prevent run-away inflation– the number of BitCoins that will ever be available to the world is limited to X million.  If BitCoins are lost due to corruption or data loss, they can never be recovered. (Clue in the Greifer who writes a trojan horse that seeks out to destroy unprotected wallet.dat files!) While the BitCoin FAQ claims that it is a misconception to say that BitCoins gain their value via the electricity used to generate them, as there is no other way to feasibly generate a BitCoin other than the mass consumption of electricity, I don’t agree with this assertion. Once a BitCoin is generated, you still have the problem of a market that still must determine their “value”–does it cost you 25 BTC for a sandwich or 2.5 BTC for a sandwich?  With an absolute fixed quantity of BTC to be created (until about the year 2140) and a specification that says that BTC can be subdivided down to the 0.00000001ths (not that any client supports this at this time, most mandate the limit of hundreths of a BTC are the smallest subdivisions) we have a currency that will devalue itself almost as easily as the Zimbabwean dollar, except by using progressively smaller and smaller subdivisions of a BTC.  Should we be using BitCoin 10-decades from now, we’ll still reminisce how it used to be that 10 BTC would have bought you a nice meal, and so on.

So what use is BitCoin? — BitCoin is driving a lot of people to think about the problems of creating transactions that cannot be interfered with by third parties, without fees, etc. The “Timestamp Server” concept and distribution of publicly “spent” transactions (to prevent double-spending) is still a valid concept. Anonymity in transactions is still something desirable, but I don’t believe that you can achieve it via near-anonymous digital signatures online.

In the end, the artificial creation of the limited number of possible BitCoins via this “proof of work” (doing millions of SHA-256 hashes over and over) is madness. All you really need is to have “proof of limitation” without the politics—was the market restrained from creating too much money too fast?  BitCoin’s use of a procedural solution is the wrong track when all you need do is define a constraint via a formula and apply it as needed over time, instead of everyone continuously spinning a hash function and wasting electricity.  Keep the transactions public, cryptographically sign them, and audit them with a money model and you’ll be able to keep much of what is good about BitCoin. And of course, use a “commodity” the people can intuitively understand, something like… time. 😉